Typically, it is not about who you play, however whenever you play them, that makes all of the distinction. You would actually say that about Thursday night time’s sport between the Broncos and Saints, a sport that can kick off the NFL’s seventh week of the common season.
A month in the past, the Saints had been 2-0 and on prime of the soccer world, whereas the Broncos had been 0-2 after scoring simply six factors in a Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh. Issues are fully totally different now; New Orleans has misplaced 4 straight, and Denver had gained three straight video games previous to final weekend’s shut loss to the Chargers.
The Broncos being favored on this sport would have been inconceivable 4 weeks in the past. Quarterback play is the most important purpose why the tables have turned. Whereas already careening within the incorrect course, the Saints’ season continued to go south when Derek Carr’s Week 5 loss to the Saints. Conversely, a great deal of the Broncos’ regular progress could be attributed to the continued progress of rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Now that we have set the desk, this is how one can watch the motion together with our breakdown and prediction for Thursday night time’s sport.
The place to look at Broncos vs. Saints
- When: Thursday, Oct. 17 | 8:15 p.m. ET
- The place: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans
- Dwell stream: Prime Video
- Observe: CBS Sports activities App
- Odds: Broncos -2.4, OU 37 (by way of BetMGM)
When the Saints have the ball
Regardless of their four-game swoon, New Orleans’ offense remains to be fifth within the league in scoring. There is a good likelihood that will not be the case after Thursday night time, nonetheless, because the crew shall be with out guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), wideouts Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). Carr (indirect) and tight finish Taysom Hill (rub) are uncertain, whereas middle/guard Lucas Patrick (chest) is questionable.
With Olave and Shaheed out, the Saints’ passing sport will doubtless lean closely on working again Alvin Kamara and tight ends Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson. Kamara enters Thursday night time’s sport because the crew’s season-leading receiver with 28 catches. Moreau and Johnson have mixed to catch 21 passes for 230 yards and three touchdowns.
Rookie fifth-rounder Bub Means, the Saints’ best receiver who shall be energetic on Thursday night time, is coming off his greatest NFL sport up to now. He caught 5 of 8 targets for 45 yards and a rating in final Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay. A giant-play menace, Means averaged 17.2 yards-per-catch throughout his school profession that included stops at three totally different colleges.
With Carr uncertain and never having practiced all week, rookie Spencer Rattler is in line to make his second profession begin. Rattler rapidly discovered his rhythm final Sunday in main the Saints to 4 consecutive scores within the first half. However he and the offense stalled in an enormous means after that. The unit’s ultimate eight drives included 5 punts and two interceptions by Rattler, who endured 5 sacks.
In hindsight, the Saints most likely did not love Rattler throwing 40 passes in his first NFL sport. In opposition to Denver, count on much less throwing from Rattler and extra handoffs to Kamara and fellow backfield mate Jamaal Williams, a former 1,000-yard rusher with the Lions who has simply 27 carries this season to date.
Rattler and Co. have the unenviable activity of dealing with a tricky Denver protection. They is probably not the Orange Crush, however Sean Payton’s unit is fairly good in its personal proper, led by cornerback Patrick Surtain II and a go rush that has already sacked opposing quarterbacks 22 instances.
Six Broncos have already tallied no less than two sacks, led by exterior linebacker Jonathan Cooper’s 4.5 sacks. Relaxation assured, the Broncos’ stealth go rush has the Saints’ consideration, and will probably be completely essential for New Orleans to not enable this ingredient of the Broncos’ crew to take over the sport.
Denver’s protection is top-10 within the NFL in lots of classes, together with in factors allowed (fourth), passing yards allowed (fifth) and crimson zone effectivity (first). If there’s an space the Saints can attainable exploit, it is Denver’s third down protection (nineteenth within the league) and run protection (14th in yards allowed). That is the place Kamara and Williams come into play.
Rattler might want to play sensible, however he’ll should let it rip no less than a couple of times so as to preserve Denver’s protection sincere.
When the Broncos have the ball
Nix’s rookie season hasn’t been clean crusing. However regardless of some turbulence, Nix is nonetheless displaying the promise that compelled the Broncos to take him with the twelfth total choose in April’s draft.
After posting a 0-4 touchdown-interception ratio in his first three video games, Nix has tossed 5 touchdowns towards simply as soon as choose over Denver’s final three video games. He is additionally run for 3 scores this season and had a season-high 61 yards on 6 carries in final week’s loss to the Chargers.
Final Sunday seemed ugly for a very long time earlier than the Broncos’ offense made a late cost just like Arnold Palmer’s legendary cost that gained him the 1960 U.S. Open that occurred to be performed in Denver. However in contrast to Palmer, Nix’s late rally didn’t lead to victory.
The Broncos had 5 punts and two turnovers on their first seven drives, however they ended the day with two touchdowns and a area objective to drag to inside one rating of Los Angeles with 2:26 left. So what modified? Los Angeles most likely laid off the fuel, and Nix made them pay with concise passing to Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele and Javonte Williams.
Throughout Denver’s ultimate three drives, Nix was 15 of 19 that included completions of 29, 37, 20, 20 and 17 yards. He additionally threw landing passes to Franklin and Sutton.
Trailing by 23, Payton threw away any semblance of a balanced offense. Denver wanted factors, and Nix was unleashed in an effort to drag off an upset. Whereas taking part in like that for a complete sport is unrealistic, the ending sequence of final Sunday’s sport was one other instance of how good Nix could be when he finds his rhythm. That sequence additionally confirmed the big-play potential of the Broncos’ ever-improving receiving corps.
The issue, nonetheless, was the dearth of run assist Nix acquired all through the sport, which contributed to the Broncos being simply 3 of 11 on third down. This is not an remoted incident, because the Broncos have been one of many league’s worst dashing groups this 12 months and are thirty first within the league on third down. Denver has to get higher in each areas if they will keep within the playoff race.
Thankfully for the Broncos, they will be dealing with a Saints protection that’s thirtieth within the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed. They’re additionally simply twentieth within the league in third down protection.
Feast or famine could be an correct technique to sum up the Saints’ protection, which has slipped to twenty third within the league in factors allowed after being top-10 in that division throughout Dennis Allen’s first two years as head coach. The Saints are second within the NFL in interceptions (10), have a stable go rush (led by defensive sort out Bryan Bresee and Alontae Taylor) and are third in crimson zone effectivity.
For Payton’s offense, establishing a working sport shall be key on Thursday night time. Nix additionally must maintain the ball, which shall be a problem given the Saints’ penchant for catching the opposition’s passes. On the identical time, Nix cannot be gun shy. What is the level of a great protection, in any case, in the event you by no means problem them to rise to the event?
Broncos vs. Saints prediction
This ought to be a entertaining Thursday night time sport, albeit one which could be missing in execution. This sport might be going to come back right down to which working sport can get going and which quarterback will do a greater job taking good care of the ball. Each of those go hand in hand.
Matchups are essential in sports activities betting. When taking a look at each groups, it seems that the Broncos have a number of massive benefits. They’ve a top-five protection going up towards a rookie quarterback making his second profession begin with each of his prime receivers not taking part in. That is sufficient to really feel comparatively secure about choosing the Broncos on the highway, until Kamara runs wild, Rattler’s secondary receivers step and the protection is ready to get a number of picks off of Nix.
Payton will get his victory towards the crew he led to a championship 15 years in the past.
Rating: Broncos 27, Saints 20 (hitting the Over set at BetMGM sportsbook)
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