UFC 310 Predictions for Pantoja vs. Asakura:
VSiN analyst Britton Hess gives his UFC 310 finest bets and places pen to paper (effectively, fingers to keyboard) to hammer out his ideas and UFC predictions for each combat on the docket.
BEST BETS HISTORY
Final Week: 3-3 (+0.18 Items, 2.65% ROI)
Article Historical past: 107-160 (-30.09 Items, -10.13% ROI)
Since 2020: 659-624 (+187.06 Items, 10.85% ROI)
PICK EM HISTORY
Final Week: 7-6 (53.85%)
Article Historical past: 239-164 (57.87%)
Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (-258) vs Kai Asakura (+210)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-125) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (-105)
Alexandre Pantoja was an “also-ran” till he grew to become the person. He started his UFC profession with a 6-3 report, very strong, however not precisely elite. He misplaced to Deiveson Figueiredo, who was on his option to the flyweight title, and two different fighters who’re not within the UFC. Nonetheless, after the unremarkable begin, he’s on a six-fight win streak, with the final three fights being for the belt.
Taking the championship from Brandon Moreno by way of break up determination was an enormous accomplishment, and his victory over Brandon Rovyal has aged very effectively. Nonetheless, his third title protection over Steve Erceg could also be a trigger for pause. Pantoja received the early rounds, however Erceg had hope late. The choice was pretty easy in Brazil, however Erceg’s subsequent combat was a KO loss to Kai Kara-France.
Pantoja is a grappling specialist. Nonetheless, he’s not afraid to brawl, even when it’s not in his finest curiosity. By essentially the most fundamental stats, Pantoja’s putting profile shouldn’t be on par with these of his champion friends. His grappling numbers are good however not elite (albeit undoubtedly muted by the extent of competitors he has confronted). It is usually price noting that he’s 9-0 versus fighters at the moment ranked within the flyweight high 10 (together with The Final Fighter bouts), and he is an ideal instance of a competitor who is aware of what it takes to execute in “successful time.”
Kai Asakura has earned the uncommon likelihood to leap straight into title competition after becoming a member of the UFC from a unique group. Asakura is the Rizin Bantamweight Champion after taking the belt from Juan Archuleta (Former Bellator bantamweight champion). He seemingly made the lower right down to 125 simply and can enter the cage with a three-inch top benefit in comparison with Pantoja. At 31, he’s additionally the youthful fighter by three years. Asakura’s outcomes versus UFC-level competitors have typically been poor. The win vs Juan Archuleta is sweet, however 4 years in the past, he was knocked out by Kyoji Horiguchi (7-1 within the UFC), and in 2019, he was KOd by Manel Kape (4-3 UFC report).
Total, I don’t suppose Asakura is on the extent of Alexandre Pantoja. I really feel just like the final three fighters Pantoja has defeated would don’t have any hassle getting their hand raised versus Asakura, and so they all may very well be Rizin Champions. That mentioned, Asakura’s energy might current an issue if Pantoja doesn’t prioritize protection. He has 13 profession KO victories in 31 professional wins.
FIGHT WINNER: Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 310 BEST BET: Alexandre Pantoja Contained in the Distance (-110) vs Asakura, Danger 1.1 Unit to win 1
Parlay Piece, See under
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Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov (-375) vs Ian “The Future” Machado Garry (+295)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-195) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (+150)
Shavkat Rakhmonov got here into the UFC with a 12-0 report and a 100% end fee. He’s now 18-0 and nonetheless has a 100% end fee which is a bit insane given the extent of competitors he has confronted legit UFC competitors. His best power is being deadly with each his palms and as a submission artist. He has a 61% important strike accuracy fee within the UFC and avoids over half the strikes thrown again this fashion. He solely will get hit 2.41 occasions per minute, which is excellent. He additionally has landed 1.49 takedowns per quarter-hour within the cage and has by no means been taken down. Moreover, he’s very conscious of the end streak however by no means forces the problem. He’s affected person sufficient to search out openings late in fights earlier than getting his opponents out of there. He’s essentially the most harmful welterweight within the UFC, and his opponents are effectively conscious.
Ian Garry comes from the Colby Covington college of overpromising finishes however underdelivering when he will get within the cage. Alright, perhaps underdelivering is a little bit of an exaggeration. Garry can be undefeated at 15-0 and is 8-0 within the UFC. Nonetheless, his ending stats are nowhere close to pretty much as good as his Uzbeki opponent, and he’s fairly wanting to run out the clock when he appears like he’s in an advantageous place. It reveals good combat IQ, however it isn’t one of the simplest ways to endear your self to followers. Moreover, Garry’s final 4 opponents have been aged 33 or older, which is notable as a result of Garry is simply 27 years outdated. Rakhmonov is 30 and would be the opponent most close to Garry’s age for the reason that second combat of his profession.
Rakhmonov is the two-inch shorter fighter at 6’1” however has a three-inch attain benefit at 77”. Ian Garry secured the second and third takedowns of his UFC profession in his final combat versus Michael “Venom” Web page, however that’s as a result of Web page is a completely hopeless grappler. That avenue is not going to be out there on this match up. Rakhmonov has struck with higher strikers than Garry and grappled superior grapplers.
FIGHT WINNER: Shavkat Rakhmonov
UFC 310 BEST BET: Parlay: Rakhmonov/Pantoja (-130, FanDuel), Danger 1.3 Items to WIn 1
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Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (-375) vs Alexander “Drago” Volkov (+295)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-330) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (+240)
By my requirements, this combat is sweet sufficient to be a major occasion. It’s a rematch of a combat that went to the scorecards again in 2021. Ciryl Gane is probably essentially the most fluid kickboxer in UFC heavyweight historical past. Alexander Volkov has the peak of an NBA energy ahead however the boxing expertise of his namesake Ivan Drago. Each of those males land over 5.0 important strikes per minute whereas boasting important strike differentials of larger than two. Accuracy numbers are additionally extraordinarily spectacular, with Gane touchdown 60% of his important strikes and Volkov touchdown 57%.
The one space the place one fighter stands out is on the bottom, Volkov is more likely to combine grappling and submissions than Gane, and if he seems to be at each of Gane’s UFC losses, he’ll notice that each Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou have been in a position to resolve the riddle by forcing the combat to the bottom. Apparently, the primary time these males fought, Gane tried 4 takedowns and was unsuccessful on all of them. Volkov didn’t full one.
FIGHT WINNER: Alexander Volkov
UFC 310 BEST BET: Alexander Volkov (+310, Caesars) vs Gane, Danger 1 unit to win 3.1
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Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (-900) vs Kron Gracie (+600)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-280) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (+210)
Bryce Mitchell is likely one of the extra entertaining fighters on the microphone, however not all the time for the precise causes. He’s humorous, however it’s a mixture between laughing with him and laughing at him. Out-of-cage antics apart, he is usually a devastating fighter. His grappling sport is powerful, and he has tons of unconventional submissions. However I introduced up his antics first as a result of if he finds himself in hassle on this combat, it will likely be due to a psychological lapse, not as a result of he isn’t the extra proficient fighter.
Kron Gracie is a specialist. He has the legendary title of Gracie and is each bit deserving as a submission grappling world champion. That mentioned, his blended martial arts expertise are fairly restricted. He’s 5-2 within the sport and 1-2 within the UFC. Typically talking, he sells out to tug guard, and if his opponent doesn’t fall for it, he flails round on the mat in an embarrassing trend earlier than getting stood up and outstruck on the toes. However his putting metrics aren’t fairly as dangerous as you’d anticipate, and in his UFC profession, he has landed extra important strikes per minute than Bryce Mitchell.
If Bryce Mitchell refuses to interact on the bottom, he’s a deserving favourite. If he has a psychological lapse and engages on the mat, I believe he can be in hassle, and this combat flips to a choose’em for Gracie at worst. I can’t belief Mitchell to combat good.
FIGHT WINNER: Kron Gracie
UFC 310 BEST BET: Kron Gracie (+600) vs Mitchell, Danger 0.75 Items to win 4.5
Kron Gracie to win by way of Submission (+1400) vs Mitchell, Danger .25 Items to win 3.5
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Nate “The Practice” Landwehr (-130) vs Dooho “The Korean Superboy” Choi (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Nate Landwehr is underrated. He has knockout energy, throws a ton of quantity, and is a succesful grappler besides. He has received 4 of his final 5 fights and has turned a nook as he has reached the again half of his 30s. The issue for Landwehr is that Dooho Choi can be underrated, and in my e-book, much more underrated than Landwehr. Choi was one of many hottest younger fighters within the group round a decade in the past. He was 3-0 with three first-round finishes. Nonetheless, when he started combating more durable competitors, he tried to make use of his warning to the wind type and paid the worth. His chin obtained depleted, and he had an harm layoff. Then he was compelled into obligatory navy service as a South Korean and was utterly out of the game from 2019 to 2023.
Choi’s return to the cage in 2023 was a bit disappointing. He had a controversial draw versus Kyle Nelson, 9 of 11 media members on MMADecisions.com gave the combat to Choi, with the opposite two agreeing with the draw. After that combat, he fought Invoice Algeo and received by way of second-round knockout. He nonetheless has the facility that made him a star on this group, however he has matured, and his defensive metrics have improved immensely since his layoff.
Choi fought solely firefights early in his profession however continues to be the extra correct striker in comparison with Nate Landwehr. He’s additionally undoubtedly extra highly effective. Moreover, Landwehr will get hit practically six occasions per minute. That’s an unsustainable fee versus Choi’s energy. There may be an out of doors shot that Landwehr is ready to land takedowns early and sometimes and management this combat, however typically talking, Choi will get again up when taken down. Landwehr’s final loss got here in a matchup wherein he had an influence drawback.
BET WINNER: Dooho Choi
UFC 310 BEST BET: Dooho Choi (+115, Caesars) vs Landwehr, Danger 1 Unit to Win 1.15
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Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (+310) vs Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes (-395)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-166) | Underneath 1.5 Rounds (+130)
Each of those fighters are far previous their prime. However the line signifies father time is just affecting Anthony Smith, which is just a bit bit ridiculous. Each fighters are of their mid 30s and a number of other years faraway from their title photographs. Dominick Reyes is 1-4 courting again to 2020 and has been knocked out in his most up-to-date three losses. He lastly obtained again within the win column in June versus Dustin Jacoby with a first-round knockout. He put the stress on early and sometimes and took benefit of a fighter who was carrying the injury of an lively schedule. In the meantime, Anthony Smith is 2-2 in his final two fights. He undoubtedly isn’t the man who fought Jon Jones for the belt in 2019, however he’s nonetheless harmful and defeated Vitor Petrino as a +400 underdog in Brazil in Could. The largest subject with Smith is he’s one foot out the door, and extra usually seen as a member of the commentary crew than within the octagon.
FIGHT WINNER: Anthony Smith
UFC 310 BEST BET: Move
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Vicente “The Silent Murderer” Luque (+130) vs Themba “The Reply” Gorimbo (-155)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-160) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (+124)
Themba Gorimbo has regarded superior since shedding his UFC debut. Since then, he’s 4-0 within the group and has taken care of enterprise as a favourite. However Vicente Luque is a unique beast and brings an entire totally different degree of expertise into the cage. Gorimbo is 14-4 as knowledgeable fighter, Luque is 15-6 in simply the UFC… and each fighters are 33 years outdated. Luque has received eight UFC efficiency bonuses, Gorimbo has 5 UFC fights in whole. That mentioned, the case for Gorimbo as a favourite jumps off the web page whenever you take a look at his gaudy combat statistics. He lands 61% of the numerous strikes he makes an attempt. He solely will get hit with 1.07 important strikes per minute and lands 4.89 takedowns per quarter-hour within the cage.
Regardless of Gorimbo being all-world on paper, Luque’s stats lag behind as a result of he has fought a lot stiffer competitors. Nonetheless, Gorimbo is getting into his prime, or at the moment in it. Luque is 1-3 in his final 4 fights (0-3 as a favourite, 1-0 as a canine), so his finest days could also be within the rearview. Moreover, Luquue has horrible defensive putting metrics. The query stays: will Gorimbo have sufficient aggression to use this gap?
FIGHT WINNER: Vicente Luque
UFC 310 BEST BET: Vicente Luque (+140, Caesars), Danger 1 Unit to Win 1.4
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Movsar Evloev (-245) vs Aljamain “Funk Grasp” Sterling (+200)
Over 2.5 (-445) | Underneath 2.5 (+310)
Movsar Evloev is one other fighter on this card, rocking the “and 0” report with 18 wins and nil defeats. He’s 8-0 within the UFC and hasn’t actually been challenged outdoors of an in depth name versus Diego Lopes (Lopes took the combat on quick discover). He has little or no energy in his palms however excels in putting protection. He additionally employs a grappling-heavy sport to remain protected. It’s exhausting to lose a combat whenever you don’t get hit and preserve high management when wrestling.
Aljamain Sterling is likely one of the extra under-appreciated fighters within the UFC. His title run at bantamweight was legit, and now as a featherweight, he seems to be the half. He has legit floor expertise, and I don’t suppose Evloev will be capable to merely management him if the combat hits the mat. Moreover I take into account Sterling the way more harmful striker. To me, this line is flat-out disrespectful, and I must again the previous champ right here. His expertise in essential moments is difficult to miss.
FIGHT WINNER: Aljamain Sterling
UFC 310 BEST BET: Aljamain Sterling (+200), vs Evloev, Danger 1 Unit to Win 2
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Randy “Rudeboy” Brown (+154) vs Bryan Battle (-185)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-140) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (+110)
Randy Brown is a real UFC professional. He doesn’t essentially have the consistency to each combat for a belt, however he does have the talents to be a problem for any opponent getting into the cage. Bryan Battle is on a meteoric rise with a 6-1, 1 NC UFC report and 5 finishes within the cage. Nonetheless, the story of this combat is Battle lacking weight by 4 kilos and searching horrible on the dimensions. The whole unknown concerning his well being and frame of mind makes me reluctant to put the worth.
FIGHT WINNER: Randy Brown
UFC 310 BEST BET: Move
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Chris “The All-American” Weidman (-112) vs Eryk “Ya Boi” Anders (-108)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (+154)
It’s unhappy to say, however Chris Weidman is 4 fights faraway from being 4 fights faraway from his prime (and calling 8 fights in the past his prime might be nonetheless beneficiant). At his finest, he was a dominating wrestler who had fight-ending putting capacity that compelled his opponents to select their poison. A number of knee and leg accidents have derailed his profession, and now, at age 40, he’s practically robotic on the market. He simply doesn’t have the mobility wanted to combat at a excessive degree. In March, he fought Bruno Silva in New Jersey. He was in a position to get a technical determination, which was maybe essentially the most bush league results of the 12 months, contemplating he repeatedly eye-poked his opponent, which brought on the stoppage, however for no matter purpose, was not correctly penalized. Weidman is 1-2 since 2021, and outdoors of nostalgia it’s exhausting to generate any type of pleasure to look at Weidman combat.
Eryk Anders isn’t fairly as outdated and damaged as Weidman, however at age 37, he’s not far off. He’s 8-8, with 1 NC within the UFC. Early in his profession, his uncooked energy and explosiveness have been an asset, however in his newer combat,s he has struggled to unleash his fury. Total, he’s pretty well-rounded, however not essentially in a great way. He’s nearly enough in most areas wanted to be a professional fighter, however he doesn’t have something that units him aside on this period of his profession. I absolutely anticipate this to be essentially the most boring combat of the night time. I hope I’m mistaken. Moreover, I picked Weidman to win this combat again in New York, however after the rescheduling, I give a slight edge to Anders.
FIGHT WINNER: Eryk Anders
UFC 310 BEST BET: Move
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Cody “Customized Made” Durden (+142) vs Joshua “The Fearless” Van (-170)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-120) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (-110)
Cody Durden is an effective grappler and is a tough charger. Josh Van is younger and the far superior striker. He employs physique photographs pretty much as good as anybody within the flyweight division. Van additionally has nice cardio and normally seems to be contemporary late within the combat. I don’t suppose Durden has any shot to win stand-up putting exchanges, and he ought to attempt to search takedowns early and sometimes, however Van’s 83% profession takedown protection fee signifies that can be simpler mentioned than carried out. It isn’t fruitful to chase KO props within the flyweight division, however I believe Van has an actual shot to do it right here.
FIGHT WINNER: Josh Van
UFC 310 BEST BET: Josh Van (-156, FanDuel), Danger 1.56 Items to Win 1
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Michael “Maverick” Chiesa (-130) vs Max “Ache” Griffin (+110)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-210) | Underneath 2.5 Rounds (+160)
Michael Chiesa is one other member of the UFC broadcast crew making his means into the cage to combat. Maverick has regarded extra dangerous than good recently. He’s 1-3 in his final 4 fights courting again to August 2021, along with his one win being a rear bare choke victory over the corpse of Tony Ferguson. Exterior of El Cucuy, he has fought legit competitors in Kevin Holland, Sean Brady, and Vicente Luque. However at age 37, Chiesa is long gone his prime and continues to be a one-dimensional submission specialist.
Max Griffin is even older than Chiesa at 39. His final two fights have been towards youthful fighters in Jeremiah Wells and Michael Morales. He beat Wells by way of break up determination however misplaced a call to Morales. His path to victory is maybe essentially the most easy on the cardboard. Don’t get taken down, and win the putting exchanges. Appears simple sufficient for a veteran of 16 walks to the octagon.
FIGHT WINNER: Max Griffin
UFC 310 BEST BET: Max Griffin (+110) vs Chiesa, Danger 1 Unit to Win 1.1
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Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (+700) vs Chase “The Dream” Hooper (-1100)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) | Underneath 1.5 Rounds (+114)
Clay Guida is legitimately sufficiently old to be Chase Hooper’s dad. Guida is 42; Hooper is 25. Guida made his professional debut when Chase Hooper was 4 years outdated. Clay Guida has been round for a very long time, and recently, it has not been a great time. He’s 1-3 in his final 4 fights, 2-4 in his final six, and 4-7 since 2019. He nonetheless has the cardio to go the space, however he doesn’t transfer his head effectively, he doesn’t land with any energy and isn’t actually a submission risk except an opponent offers it away.
Chase Hooper was the wunderkind du jour for a minute, however after beginning his profession within the cage 3-3 (when he was college-aged), the group put the child on the again burner. He responded and has received three in a row, together with two in dominating, inside-the-distance trend. He submitted Jordan Leavitt after which brutally beat the brakes off of Viacheslav Borshchev earlier than successful by way of submission. This combat has the potential to be the UFC’s model of the Tyson-Paul boxing match…
FIGHT WINNER: Chase Hooper
UFC 310 BEST BET: Parlay Piece, See Beneath
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Kennedy Nzechukwu (-550) vs Lukasz Brzeski (+410)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-160) | Underneath 1.5 Rounds (+124)
Kennedy Nzechukwu has had a seamless transition from the sunshine heavyweight division to heavyweight. His first opponent within the class, Chris Barnett, tore his hamstring with pre-fight antics, and it led to an easy KO victory for Kennedy. Now, he really is the heavier fighter as he takes on Lukasz Brzeski. Each of those fighters are emblematic of the shortage of depth within the UFC’s heavyweight division. Kennedy actually needs to be combating at mild heavyweight, however there’s room for him at heavyweight. Brzeski shouldn’t be within the UFC, however they want extra our bodies for ranked and soon-to-be-ranked fighters to beat up on. Brzseki is 1-4 within the UFC with two losses by way of KO, each of whom are guys who’ve by no means knocked out one other UFC opponent.
Nzechukwu’s hand pace will win the day right here. He additionally figures to have higher cardio and a greater chin. I like him to win by way of KO, at -150 or higher, you possibly can parlay with Hooper to cut back the worth even additional.
FIGHT WINNER: Kennedy Nzechukwu
UFC 310 BEST BET: Parlay: Nzechukwu Win by way of KO/Hooper ML (-120, FanDuel), Danger 1.2 Items to Win 1
*Odds by way of DraftKings except in any other case famous
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UFC 310 BEST BETS RECAP
– Alexandre Pantoja Contained in the Distance (-110) vs Asakura, Danger 1.1 Unit to win 1
– Parlay: Rakhmonov/Pantoja (-130, FanDuel), Danger 1.3 Items to WIn 1
– Alexander Volkov (+310, Caesars) vs Gane, Danger 1 unit to win 3.1
– Kron Gracie (+600) vs Mitchell, Danger 0.75 Items to win 4.5
– Kron Gracie to win by way of Submission (+1400) vs Mitchell, Danger .25 Items to win 3.5
– Dooho Choi (+115, Caesars) vs Landwehr, Danger 1 Unit to Win 1.15
– Vicente Luque (+140, Caesars) vs Gorimbo, Danger 1 Unit to Win 1.4
– Aljamain Sterling (+200) vs Evloev, Danger 1 Unit to Win 2
– Josh Van (-156, FanDuel) vs Durden, Danger 1.56 Items to Win 1
– Max Griffin (+110) vs Chiesa, Danger 1 Unit to Win 1.1
– Parlay: Nzechukwu Win by way of KO/Hooper ML (-120, FanDuel), Danger 1.2 Items to Win 1