On Sunday, an out-of-sorts Manchester Metropolis journey to Premier League leaders Liverpool. Right here, we analyse 5 points of the sport that could possibly be key to its final result.
On Sunday afternoon at Anfield, Arne Slot’s runaway Premier League leaders host Manchester Metropolis, who’re at what should be their lowest ebb below Pep Guardiola.
Man Metropolis very almost ended their five-game dropping streak with a win over Feyenoord in midweek, however a capitulation as catastrophic because it was uncharacteristic noticed them throw away a three-goal lead within the closing quarter-hour to attract 3-3. It was the primary time in over 35 years that Metropolis have didn’t win a recreation after holding a three-goal lead, and after the run of outcomes they’ve simply had, it felt massively important.
There has by no means been a greater time to face this Metropolis facet. Liverpool, already eight factors away from the champions, have extra purpose to be assured going right into a recreation in opposition to Metropolis than they’ve in another current assembly.
However they can even go into this top-of-the-table assembly cautious of a backlash. It might be silly to underestimate Metropolis, even on a six-game winless run that no person might have seen coming a month in the past.
There are justifiable causes to foretell nearly any outcome on Sunday, in what shall be Slot’s first assembly with Guardiola. Right here, we have a look at 5 key elements that would resolve the sport’s final result.
Liverpool Counters and Metropolis’s Smooth Center
With out Rodri within the centre of the park, Metropolis have been too straightforward to play via. That isn’t solely right down to the absence of the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, however it’s a huge a part of the issue.
In Guardiola’s whole reign, Metropolis have by no means seemed so porous. Their issues behind late have been traditionally unhealthy. After the Feyenoord catastrophe, they’ve conceded at the least two targets in six successive video games in all competitions for the primary time since Could 1963.
As a workforce that dominates possession as a lot as they do, counter-attacks are one of many few ways in which opponents ever actually have an opportunity in opposition to them. In Rodri’s absence, opposition counters have develop into an actual downside.
Within the 10 Premier League matches that Rodri hasn’t appeared on this season, Manchester Metropolis have given up 17 photographs following a fast-break scenario. Compared, they’ve allowed opponents simply seven photographs from quick breaks of their final 10 matches with Rodri, and just one of their final eight.
In Premier League video games solely, simply three groups (West Ham, Brighton, Crystal Palace) have allowed their opponents extra possibilities from such conditions this season than Metropolis (14). Solely Aston Villa and Brighton (4 every) have conceded extra targets from opposition counter-attacks this season than Metropolis (three).
Metropolis have conceded 4.1 xG from photographs following a quick break this season, which is already greater than they did in the entire of 2023-24 (3.6), and suggests they’re maybe lucky to have solely let in three targets on the break.
It was a specific downside of their mauling by the hands of Tottenham final weekend, when Spurs scythed via Metropolis on the break repeatedly. And there shall be no let-up on that entrance on Sunday.
Liverpool have had extra photographs from quick breaks (20) than another workforce within the Premier League this season, and rank second to Spurs (9) for targets from such conditions (5). Metropolis might want to discover a solution to break up these counter-attacks at Anfield.
Metropolis’s Proper Flank vs Liverpool’s Weak Left?
Liverpool don’t seem to have too many weaknesses in the meanwhile. They’ve let in solely eight targets in 12 league video games this season. They’ve misplaced solely as soon as all season, and that was 15 video games in the past. The Reds have gained 17 of their 19 video games below Slot.
However in case you had been on the lookout for a weak point to focus on (that *would possibly* be what we’re doing right here), there could possibly be some hope for Metropolis down Liverpool’s left.
Left-back Andy Robertson hasn’t been fairly the assured and reassuring presence we have now come to know him to be through the years. There was a interval earlier within the season when Kostas Tsimikas was being chosen forward of the Scot, and he has given away a penalty in each of Liverpool’s final two video games. He doesn’t concede many fouls, however he has made two key errors within the house of the final week.
Neither of them have ended up costing his facet something – they got here from behind to beat Southampton final weekend and Kylian Mbappé missed from the spot within the Champions League in midweek – however they may not be afforded such a luxurious in opposition to Metropolis, even of their present state.
No one at Metropolis can actually say they’ve been performing nicely of late, however Savinho has supplied just a few – albeit rare – brilliant sparks, and definitely has the flexibility to trigger Robertson just a few complications.
Of gamers to play 500+ minutes within the Premier League this season, he leads the way in which for possibilities created from open play (2.7 per 90), is second for anticipated assists (0.44 per 90), and is third for profitable dribbles (3.4 per 90). He was ineffective on the left flank in opposition to Spurs final week and must be again on the proper this weekend. He might present some hope for the guests.
The Larger the Likelihood, the Tougher they Fall
Metropolis have been loads leakier than normal on the again this season, and it’s not simply the amount of possibilities they’re giving up, it’s the standard of them as nicely.
As an illustration, solely Ipswich City (49), Southampton (44), Leicester Metropolis (44) and Crystal Palace (38) have confronted extra huge possibilities within the Premier League this season than Metropolis (37). A ‘huge probability’ is outlined by Opta as an opportunity from which the attacking participant would often be anticipated to attain.
Nevertheless, since Rodri’s damage in opposition to Arsenal on 22 September, Metropolis have confronted essentially the most huge possibilities within the Premier League (30 in 7 video games).
Metropolis have confronted the fewest photographs within the Premier League in that point (61) however have allowed their opponents the seventh-highest xG whole (12.2) and have conceded the sixth-most targets (12). On common, every shot Metropolis have confronted has been price 0.20 xG, which is comfortably the best within the Premier League in that point (forward of Manchester United’s 0.15 xG).
As you may see beneath, Man Metropolis’s six-game rolling common non-penalty xG distinction has been constructive for Guardiola’s whole reign, proving that they constantly create higher possibilities than they concede. Nevertheless, it’s nearer than ever earlier than to being unfavourable; their rolling six-game common non-pen xG in opposition to is at its highest below the Spaniard, and is near catching up their xG for.
Much more regarding for the Metropolis boss shall be this subsequent graphic, which appears to be like on the high quality of non-penalty possibilities every workforce concedes and the speed at which they concede targets. Metropolis stand out for all of the mistaken causes.
They’re dealing with higher-quality non-penalty photographs than anybody else and people photographs are being transformed extra constantly than everybody else’s photographs confronted, too. Liverpool are on the reverse finish of the dimensions.
Metropolis’s points could possibly be a specific downside in opposition to a Liverpool facet who’ve scored the second most targets within the Premier League this season (24) and have recorded the third-highest xG (23.6). Arne Slot’s males have additionally had the joint-second highest xG per shot within the league (0.13), behind solely Brentford (0.15).
With Metropolis conceding good possibilities and Liverpool creating them, don’t be stunned to see just a few close-range efforts for the hosts on Sunday.
Metropolis have conceded a deeply regarding 13 targets of their final 4 video games in all competitions, however they could possibly be helped if a key participant returns…
Key Gamers and Potential Absences
The final time Rúben Dias performed for Man Metropolis within the league was additionally the final time they gained a recreation (1-0 versus Southampton on 26 October).
Correlation doesn’t essentially equal causation, however Guardiola shall be hoping that’s the case if the Portuguese centre-back is match to take to the pitch at Anfield.
Dias was an unused substitute in Metropolis’s 3-3 draw with Feyenoord on Tuesday, suggesting he could also be nearing a return, which might be an enormous enhance to the champions.
Within the 126 Premier League video games by which he has featured since arriving in September 2020, Metropolis have gained 76.2%, incomes 2.4 factors per recreation and conceding 0.8 targets per recreation. In 36 league video games with out him, they’ve gained 61.1%, earned 2.0 factors per recreation, and conceded 1.1 targets per recreation.
Having Dias accessible ought to convey much more calm and organisation to the champions’ backline, which is required greater than ever proper now.
Then again, Liverpool could possibly be with no key defender of their very own after Ibrahima Konaté was clattered by Endrick within the closing seconds of their 2-0 win over Actual Madrid on Wednesday. The large centre-back, who lately captained France of their Nations League win over Italy, has been in imperious kind this season as a part of Slot’s environment friendly defence, successful a formidable 71.6% of his duels and 82.4% of his aerial duels.
One participant who is nearly sure to characteristic for Liverpool is Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian’s long-term future may be up within the air, however there isn’t any questioning his kind or his continued worth to the Reds.
In addition to having essentially the most targets and assists mixed within the Premier League this season (16), Salah’s aim involvements have been price a league-high 17 factors to Liverpool this time period.
He additionally has a improbable document in opposition to Metropolis, scoring seven targets and including 4 assists in 14 Premier League appearances for Liverpool.
Erling Haaland, then again, has a comparatively poor document in opposition to Liverpool, scoring only one aim in three video games – that aim coming on the Etihad Stadium in final season’s 1-1 draw. He does have a aim to his identify at Anfield, however that was scored for Salzburg within the Champions League in October 2019.
Somebody with a greater scoring document at Anfield is Ilkay Gündogan, who has discovered the web thrice at Liverpool’s residence, the joint-most anybody has managed for Man Metropolis at Anfield (Nicolas Anelka additionally three).
House Benefit
Liverpool vs Man Metropolis is a fixture that tends to favour the hosts. The away facet has gained simply six of the 54 Premier League conferences between the groups – the bottom share of any fixture to be performed greater than 30 occasions within the competitors’s historical past (11%).
Anfield has been a very robust place for Metropolis to go. They’ve gained simply considered one of their final 21 Premier League video games at Liverpool (D7 L13), beating them 4-1 in February 2021 – when followers weren’t allowed in stadiums because of the pandemic. They’ve not gained at Anfield with followers in attendance since Could 2003 (2-1).
This weekend, the followers will certainly create an environment that makes Metropolis’s process much more tough. A Metropolis facet missing of their normal confidence and verve would possibly nicely wrestle in such an atmosphere.
Liverpool gamers previous and current have spoken in regards to the impression the supporters have at Anfield, and the gang might play a good larger function than normal on Sunday.
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