Closeup on Brandon Montour

After I wrote about free agent defenders I spent no time on Brandon Montour, however his identify continues to be on everybody’s lips, notably individuals not watching the Stanley Cup Ultimate. A extra in-depth look would not damage.

First, if the Leafs signed Montour, they might get a right-shooting defender who would carry ability to the staff and make them higher. The defence corps is so depleted proper now, practically anybody would.

Second, I do not see why Florida would let him stroll. However let’s assume they may and have a look at who Montour is behind final 12 months’s factors that made him well-known.

Historical past

Montour is listed as being from Brantford in a whole lot of locations, however he’s really from the Six Nations of the Grand River neighborhood of Ohsweken. He’s 30 now, and was drafted in 2014 fifty fifth total by the Anaheim Geese.

He performed within the USHL system, and did one season within the NCAA earlier than transferring on to the Geese AHL staff proper out of the draft. He performed another 12 months within the AHL for them and cut up the 2016-2017 season between the NHL and the AHL.

In 2019, Anaheim, about to be perpetually rebuilding, had Montour on a the primary 12 months of a two 12 months deal at $3.4 million. They traded him to Buffalo on the deadline for a first-round choose and defender Brendan Guhle. Guhle retired at 26 throughout his one season in Germany after struggling a knee damage whereas with Anaheim. The choose received the Geese a prospect nonetheless within the AHL right this moment. That has nothing to do with Montour, it is simply an attention-grabbing have a look at buying and selling “costly” gamers since you need youthful prospects.

In Buffalo, Montour’s first full 12 months, Jack Eichel performed the total season, Sam Reinhart was nonetheless there and Jeff Skinner was horrible. Jake McCabe was a part of an 11-man defence corps. Buffalo completed third final within the Atlantic at the beginning of the interval the place it grew to become more and more tough to beat out the Crimson Wings and the Senators and finally Montréal for final place.

The Sabres signed him for one 12 months at a slight improve on his prior deal late in October of 2020 after stories surfaced that they had been simply not going to concern a qualifying supply, they had been that dissatisfied with him. This was the primary time a whole lot of curiosity in him surfaced in Leafs-land, however he was so unimpressive in Buffalo, most individuals would have hated a commerce for him.

The Sabres had been dangerous within the quick season beginning in January, 2021, Montour nonetheless wasn’t getting factors, and the Sabres really had defensive prospects, so that they traded him to Florida on the deadline for a third-round choose. He didn’t arrive with a bang, and was pointless of their 6-game playoff spherical that 12 months as they had been beat by the final word champion, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

After which one thing modified. It wasn’t simply Paul Maurice, as a result of within the 2020-2021 season, Montour performed below Joel Quenneville and Andrew Brunette. However below Maurice for 2 years, he is immediately a points-generating defender who appears… properly, like he does not defend very properly, to be sincere.

Defence vs Factors

I will stir defending, possession, producing offence and factors for and towards all collectively and have a look at GAR. Or Standings Factors Above Alternative as it’s proven right here:

The highest half is simply how a lot the participant contributed total to standings factors. The underside is similar factor rated per 60 minutes. Be aware the TOI color. Florida just isn’t the primary time he is performed huge minutes. And for those who have a look at the 2020 offseason, you possibly can perceive why Buffalo thought-about simply not qualifying him.

Essentially the most attention-grabbing season is actually his one good 12 months in Anaheim, and so they had been (for the Pacific) staff that 12 months, however received swept by the Sharks within the first spherical of the playoffs, which is probably going why it is forgotten. That they had a pleasant lengthy checklist of fine forwards, and that appears to be the important thing to unlock Montour’s worth – you want forwards offering the construction wherein he performs. Maurice is a really structure-oriented coach as properly.

Now let’s take the objective scoring ability and luck out of the equation and look simply at Montour. The difficulty is his remoted values utilizing Evolving Hockey’s RAPM mannequin are far and wide. He was alternative degree in 2020-2021, a Corsi For machine with solely mildly dangerous defence the subsequent 12 months, an offensive god in 2022-2023 to the purpose nobody cared his defending was as dangerous because it was. And this 12 months? Some precise defending that appears okay with some good Corsi For and a net-negative impression on targets for.

I do not know who this man is. And HockeyViz disagrees with EH somewhat, largely about this present season and the ability play. EH has at all times proven him to be very efficient on the ability play, and HV has him as a null issue most of the time. The place they do agree is that this season he had some good defensive outcomes which is, in an enormous understatement, not his regular outcomes.

Can he rating? No, not likely, and he does not present up in “setting” the HV measure of playmaking. His fixed, so long as there are good forwards on the staff, is producing offence. So now let’s speak about what that’s. Individuals simplify the phrase offence right down to imply scoring targets or getting assists, and for those who say a participant is nice offensively when they do not get factors, you will get comically worded incredulity in reply. However factors do not simply occur out of skinny air, and there is a host of expertise that create offence that largely quantity to conserving the puck within the offensive zone.

Montour is nice at these issues however he wants forwards who can take that puck and do attention-grabbing issues with it. He performed this season more often than not with Niko Mikkola, who just isn’t a top-pairing defender however eye exams as a bodily drive defensively. He performed final season with Marc Staal, who can also be not a top-pairing defender. Try to be taking a look at this and saying, wow, this man carried his pairings and was nice whereas Gustav Forsling was on another pair more often than not. Montour performs essentially the most minutes at five-on-five, although attributable to particular groups use.

One clue about who carries whom is available in HV’s new Transition Impression charts. What I get from this, is that each Staal and Mikkola are complete opposites to Montour and so they have some good impact at their very own blueline in guaranteeing zone exits and entries go the way you need them to. Good relative to Montour, no less than, whereas his worth comes on the opposing blueline.

If this man had any historical past outdoors this season of defensive worth, he’d be rattling close to excellent. However he does not. And the little or no he does have appears to be forward-influenced Corsi-affecting, “one of the best defence is staying within the offensive zone” defence. Morgan Rielly lite. Which might be nice, do not get me incorrect. On a second pair with McCabe, and with Matt Roy or his simulacrum on the highest pair, that may be wonderful. Significantly if the EH reckoning of Montour’s energy play capability is actual. He can PK too.

There is not the cap house for that plan with a man this costly – over $6 million – that fare down the depth chart. Even with the magic cap clearing elimination of two high forwards everybody envisages for 2025-2026, he does not match as a result of immediately the Leafs will want high forwards.

It is the incorrect place to place that a lot cash. And he is the incorrect man to pair with Rielly. Somebody who will proceed to play him extra minutes will signal him and get no matter sport he is received subsequent in his variable repertoire.