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Can Oilers #5 d-man Brett Kulak take on a top-4 role? Why not both?

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2 weeks ago

November 9, 2024

Printed Nov 07, 2024 • 9 minute learn

Apr 25, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN;Edmonton Oilers defensemen Brett Kulak (27) celebrates his aim scored through the first interval in opposition to Los Angeles Kings goaltender Joonas Korpisalo (70) in sport 5 of the primary spherical of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Place. Necessary Credit score: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports activities Photograph by Perry Nelson /USA TODAY Sports activities through Reuters Con

Since being acquired from the Montreal Canadiens on the 2022 commerce deadline, defenceman Brett Kulak has been a bastion of consistency. He watched the primary sport after his arrival from the pressbox behind a defence corps of Duncan Keith, Cody Ceci, Kris Russell, Tyson Barrie, Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard, however changed Russell within the line-up two days later. Since then, he has performed each single sport for the Oilers, together with 196 within the common season and one other 53 within the playoffs.

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Kulak belongs to a peculiar class of Oilers rearguard that has populated the staff one and even two at a time for properly over a decade. Veteran mid-level man developed elsewhere, acquired on the commerce or free-agent market and finally signed to a four-year — at all times, four-year — eight-figure deal to fill a depth position finest described as “#4-5 d-man”. Sometimes on or near Jul 01, with a lot fanfare. Think about:

Andrew Ference, signed to a four-year, $13 million UFA deal in 2013.
Mark Fayne, signed to a four-year, $14.5 million UFA deal in 2014.
Kris Russell, signed to a one-year UFA deal in 2016, then a four-year, $16 million extension in 2017.
Cody Ceci, signed to a four-year, $13 million UFA deal in 2021.
Brett Kulak, acquired by commerce on the deadline in 2022, then signed to a four-year, $11 million extension that summer season.

Right now, solely Kulak stays from the “four-year membership”. The others have gone their numerous methods: Ference lived out his contract on LTIR, Fayne within the AHL, Russell performed his out and even received an extra one-year extension earlier than retiring, Ceci was traded for worth with no retention after three years of helpful service.

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Kulak has been a fixture at 3LD all through that point, persistently enjoying about 15-18 minutes per sport, the overwhelming majority of that at even energy. Final season, for instance, he performed all 107 video games however reached the 20-minute plateau simply 4 instances, with a high-water mark of “simply” 20:49. As a normal rule, 20 minutes is the dividing line between high 4 and backside pair, with Kulak’s deployment the signal of a transparent #5.

His precept companions in his first 2+ seasons right here had been Barrie (14 hours collectively within the common season) and Vincent Desharnais (12 hours), each third-pairing righties with little or no else in frequent. However each these guys are gone now, as is Ceci (6½ hours with Kulak). Bouchard stays, however after enjoying 4 hours with Kulak between the deadlines of ’22 and ’23, Bouch has been stapled to the fitting facet of Mattias Ekholm on Edmonton’s first pairing. That has left Nurse to anchor the second pair and Kulak the third.

Or so was the plan till lately. With the joint departures of Ceci and Desharnais final summer season together with that of swing man Philip Broberg, the Oilers had a critical remodeling of their again finish. As a substitute of the earlier three gamers who within the present season command some $10 million in cap, replacements Ty Emberson, Troy Stecher and Travis Dermott all are available below $1 million per man and barely $2.5 mil all in.

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Brett Kulak’s cap hit of $2.75 million is greater than the three of them mixed; judging by the present payroll construction, he “ought to” be #4.

It stands to purpose that the native of Stony Plain, AB is beginning to discover an elevated position throughout the seven-man unit, handedness be damned. And in current video games, the Oilers teaching group has devised an progressive plan to maneuver him up the line-up.

Earlier within the season, I wrote of the weird 4-6-7 rotation being deployed by coaches Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey, by which Kulak primarily lined up with younger Emberson on the third pairing whereas the extra veteran Stecher and Dermott largely break up time between the press field or enjoying with Nurse on the second pairing. By and enormous, although, the squad went with three distinct pairings in every sport.

Video games 1-7

The most typical pairs leap off this chart, courtesy the nice people at PuckIQ.com.

PuckIQ D G1-7

Not surprisingly, the facility couple of Ekholm-Bouchard stand out within the upper-right quadrant, which tells us they performed the hardest competitors (vertical axis) with one of the best circulate of play (horizontal axis). Of the opposite pairs, Nurse-Stecher had the more durable assignments however with detached outcomes on the shady facet of fifty%, whereas Kulak-Emberson performed extra sheltered minutes however with the puck shifting north for a lot of that point.

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Right here’s how the pairings rolled from the angle of Brett Kulak:

Kulak G1-7

There’s just a little little bit of scramble right here. In Sport 1 Kulak lined up with Dermott for 40 minutes whereas the projected second pair of Nurse-Emberson struggled; the youthful man began the third interval beside Kulak, and there he has largely remained. Emberson did sit out Video games 3 and seven, with Stecher drawing in beside Kulak each instances. Dermott usually slotted in with Nurse when he performed, with treasured little success. When that duo received burned for an important aim in opposition to vs. Carolina in Sport 7, it was again to the drafting board for the teaching workers.

By means of 7 video games, there had been a transparent divide in ice time and accountability between the highest three of Bouchard, Ekholm and Nurse (throughout 20 minutes an evening) and the quartet of Kulak, Stecher, Dermott and Emberson (all within the 15-16 minute vary). Kulak stood out as the one one among that group to play all of the video games, however in any other case his deployment inside these video games was third pairing all the best way.

Video games 8-14

A brand new wrinkle emerged in Sport 8, when the Oilers rolled the next pairings to begin the sport:

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Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Kulak
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Stecher
Kulak-Emberson
Ekholm-Bouchard

The refined change was evident on the second shift and periodically all through the sport, primarily in high-leverage conditions close to the start or finish of a interval or in response to a particular match-up. Nurse and Kulak had performed simply 5:56 collectively within the first 7 video games mixed; in Sport 8 alone they had been a duo for five:58. As if an affirmation, the Oilers rolled to a 4-0 win.

That was the beginning of a development that continued for five extra video games, the place Nurse and Kulak performed 4-7 minutes as a pairing in every, whereas spending the remainder of their 5v5 minutes with their “different” companions. In impact, the d-corps rolled as FOUR distinct pairings:

#1 pair (heavy minutes): Ekholm-Bouchard
#2 pair (specialised minutes): Nurse-Kulak
#3A pair (considerably sheltered minutes): Nurse-Stecher (or Nurse-Dermott)
#3B pair (extra sheltered minutes): Kulak-Emberson

This progressive work-around allowed the teaching workers to offer younger Emberson a gentle food plan of third pairing minutes with the identical companion in Kulak, whereas giving the latter extra minutes in opposition to more durable comp, asking him to modify to his off-side within the course of. In impact, Kulak has been doing double responsibility as each a #4 and a #5 defender.

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In the process, he’s been accumulating the minutes, having reached the 20-minute marker no fewer than 5 times in the last 7 games, indeed has averaged that workload over the set of games combined. That’s more 20-minute games in the last 7 than he logged last year in 107.

On average, his ice time has risen by the better part of 4 minutes per game over the last 7, with those extra minutes primarily accumulated in those selected shifts with Nurse.

Looking at the 7 games as a whole, every d-man but Dermott was on the right side of the 50% break-even line, but with a clear top four emerging in or near the upper right quadrant of the PuckIQ chart. Nurse and Kulak had slightly lesser QualComp than the top pair, but bear in mind all those relatively sheltered minutes each played with the guys near the bottom of the page. It stands to reason that the selected Nurse-Kulak minutes were against a much higher standard of comp.

In Game 14 vs. Vegas, the coaches took this experiment to the next level, using Nurse-Kulak as the second pairing for most of the game, with the occasional extra shift with their prior partner. The other wrinkle was that Stecher-Emberson were spotted in as a duo, meaning that this particular game featured FIVE “regular” pairings:

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Ekholm-Bouchard 18:07
Nurse-Kulak 15:30
Stecher-Emberson 6:58
Nurse-Stecher 5:22
Kulak-Emberson 4:55

That last partnership had been rarely seen previously, the two righties teaming up for just 10 minutes in 13 games. But against Vegas they got a bunch of shifts together.

For his part, Kulak played a monstrous 23:48 in all situations, and had a tremendous game, powered by his high-end wheels. He chipped in on 6 Grade A shots by the Oilers, an exceptional number for a d-man, especially one not involved in the powerplay. He scored his third goal of the season to tie the score, sliding into the middle slot to deflect home his partner Nurse’s point shot. By one popular metric, he and Nurse were Edmonton’s two strongest players in this game:

Alas, it came in a losing effort as Edmonton’s top pair, reliably excellent most games, had something of an off-night. But the new deployment wrinkle passed the “proof of concept” test with flying colours.

Games 1-14

Here’s TOI for the season to date, neatly divided into equal seven-game sets that define the before and after of the Nurse-Kulak experiment. The top pair continues to log about 24 minutes a night each, and plays almost exclusively as a duo at even strength. Nurse’s ice time has risen by about 1:20 per game, Kulak’s by a more substantial 3:40. The extra minutes came from the bottom three guys, who have each seen their ice time cut back by a minute or two.

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The PuckIQ splits above tell us the results have been good from a flow of play perspective. The team has had a little more success, improving from 2-4-1 with a miserable -13 goal share in the first 7 GP, to 4-3-0 with -3 in the second. Still far from ideal, but better.

By all appearances the club is just trying to make the best of a less-than-ideal septet in the intermediate term with the expectation of an upgrade at or near the trade deadline. The obvious target since the beginning has been a veteran defender with top-four capability, preferably a righty. GM Stan Bowman has expressed his plan of accruing cap space to that end, and emphasized it again this week when he returned both Drake Caggiula and Noah Philp to Bakersfield to recommence the accrual process. From a cap perspective, the longer he can wait to pull the trigger, the better.

In the meantime, the coaches have been experimenting with various work-arounds to maximize their seven-man crew, and I give them full marks for the creativity they’ve shown. The key to it all has been Brett Kulak, who has taken on extra workload and responsibility in a top-four role in a growing percentage of the time. To these old eyes, he’s been doing a pretty creditable job splitting time between the second and thirds pairings and switching sides in the process. He’s been waiting a while for this opportunity and to this early point appears to be making the most of it.

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Practice update

Stecher is out there but no Janmark at practice

— Jim Matheson (@jimmathesonnhl) November 7, 2024

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Two veterans received banged up in Wednesday’s loss to Vegas. Stecher blocked a shot late within the third, hobbled down the tunnel and didn’t return, however was OK to go at this time. Mattias Janmark however got here again from a tumble into the boards to complete the sport, however took a upkeep day at this time.

No Janmark on the ice and it’s rotating traces at follow at this time:

RNH – McDavid – Hyman (Derek Ryan switching by way of)

Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson (Perry switching by way of)

Skinner – Henrique – Brown

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson/Dermott#Oilers

— Tony Brar 🚀 (@TonyBrarOTV) November 7, 2024

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Janmark’s absence left simply eleven wholesome forwards, who rotated by way of three traces as proven. The defensive septet however stays intact, even because the listed pairings don’t absolutely disclose to what the coaches have been deploying in precise video games.