Breeders’ Cup 2024: Expert picks, odds and previews for the Classic and Saturday’s other races

Day 2 of the Breeder’s Cup options eight Grade 1 races, together with the much-anticipated Breeders’ Cup Basic. To accommodate the school soccer schedule, the marquee race, referred to as the Basic, is being run mid-card with a publish time of 5:41 p.m. ET.

TV protection for Saturday’s occasions begins at 2:00 p.m. on USA, shifting to NBC at 3:30 p.m. and going again to USA at 6:00 p.m. (All occasions Japanese.)

You may as well watch all through the day on Fubo, Peacock, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports activities app. All Breeders’ Cup races besides the Basic can even be obtainable on FanDuel TV.

Beneath, I’ve highlighted horses that I discover intriguing for one purpose or one other: their expertise, their pace, their story or their connections. I attempt to look past favorites to horses which may boost vertical exotics (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), and if I get beat by a favourite, so be it.

Good luck and protected journeys to all.

Filly and Mare Dash

Publish time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 7 furlongs

The remarkably constant No. 4 Vahva (16 races, six wins, three seconds, three thirds) takes her first shot on the Breeders’ Cup this 12 months. Although she got here in a disappointing third as the favourite within the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga and has been unraced since then, she’s raced completely in graded stakes races going again to Could 2023. She’s raced nicely off layoffs previously, and that’s why she’s all the time an element. Her report is 8-5-2-1 on the distance, and the morning line odds put Vahva at 4-1.

No. 9 Methods and Means (5-2) is a deserving favourite, and No. 6 Society (3-1) has in the reduction of to this distance after faltering at routes and a seventh-place end within the Breeders’ Cup Distaff final 12 months.

In case you are seeking to make a long-shot guess, I like No. 10 Scylla (10-1). Her profile is the kind that will usually make me play towards — she is winless and inexperienced on the distance and has no Grade 1 wins. However I by no means rely out coach Invoice Mott, and jockey Mike Smith has received extra Breeders’ Cup races (27) than any jockey.

Turf Dash

Publish time: 3:41 p.m. ET
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 5 furlongs

Final 12 months, I appreciated long-shot No. 8 Huge Invasion (20-1) on this spot. He completed second by a neck, and he’s again this 12 months to take one other shot. From 14 begins on the distance, he’s received 10 and completed third in three others. He and famous person jockey Frankie Dettori might want to work out a visit in a crowded subject at a brief distance, and whereas he won’t be ok to win, he’ll be on my tickets.

No. 11 Huge Evs (12-1) returns to the Breeders’ Cup after profitable the Juvenile Turf Dash final 12 months at this distance, at which he’s run 10 occasions with six wins and solely two occasions completed worse than third. The Irish-bred has racked up graded-stakes wins in England during the last 12 months, and there’s no purpose to suppose that he received’t be an element once more this 12 months.

It will be foolhardy to miss heavy favourite No. 9 Cogburn (7-5). Undefeated on the distance and a graded stakes winner in all three of his races this 12 months, he’s acquired a flexible working type and a world-class jockey who can adapt to the tempo because it performs out.

No. 10 Isivunguvungu (20-1) has raced solely as soon as in america, a win in a listed stakes race in September, however he’s impressed in graded stakes in his native South Africa, and I believe he’s price a sprinkle. Coach H. Graham Movement on the grass is a combo I’m blissful to guess at any value, and it’s paid off for me on huge racing days previously.

Distaff

Publish time: 4:21 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million
Distance: 1 1/8 miles

Final 12 months’s winner, Idiomatic, was anticipated to run right here, however she was retired after getting injured every week earlier than the race. Achieved as she is, she nonetheless would have had her palms full with No. 2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5), whose solely loss this 12 months got here within the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, when she raced towards males and misplaced by a head to Fierceness, who’ll contest the Basic in a while the cardboard.

She is one spectacular filly. Three for 3 on the distance, seven wins in 9 races with two runner-up finishes — one might arguably say that this race comes on the finish of a rigorous marketing campaign and could be an excessive amount of. You can additionally say that she’s quick and powerful and completely the one to beat.

You may as well file underneath “chalky” No. 6 Raging Sea (7-2), who relishes this nine-furlong distance and involves the Distaff off two Grade 1 wins. If Thorpedo Anna goes to the lead and somebody goes along with her and cooks her, this filly is a logical one to take a seat off the tempo and pounce late.

Extra Japanese horses than ever earlier than have traveled to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup this 12 months, and No. 9 Superior Result’s undefeated. She was bred in america and is sired by Triple Crown winner Justify, and all however one among her wins have come by comfy margins, together with the three at this distance.

Turf

Publish time: 5:01 p.m. ET
Purse: $5 million
Distance: 1 1/2 miles

European runners have dominated this race, profitable eight of the final 11 renewals and 25 of 39 general. The 2023 winner, No. 11 Insurgent’s Romance (5-2), is again after taking final 12 months off and is the morning line favourite. He’s received Grade 1 races in Hong Kong, Dubai and Qatar this 12 months, and with a ton of success at this distance, there’s no purpose to suppose that he can’t add to his worldwide trophy case.

Fillies and mares run towards their male counterparts extra typically in Europe than they do in america, and No. 2 Emily Upjohn (5-1) makes her first journey to the U.S. to run right here. She hasn’t received because the summer season of 2023 within the Grade 1 Coral Eclipse in Britain, however she’s often aggressive and would possibly boost your exotics.

U.S.-based and -bred No. 6 Far Bridge (6-1) heads into this race off two wins in Grade 1 races, each at this distance. The high-profile connections of No. 4 Luxembourg (12-1) are used to profitable races at this degree, and this value on an Aidan O’Brien trainee is a rarity.

Basic

Publish time: 5:41 p.m. ET
Purse: $7 million
Distance: 1 1/4 miles

Horses which might be bred or skilled in Japan have been ascendant during the last 5 or so years in U.S. dust racing, and there are three of them working on this 12 months’s Basic. Final 12 months, I characterised Japanese-bred No. 7 Ushba Tesoro (12-1) as “a menace,” and he ended up ending fourth by 4 1/2 lengths. He’s again this 12 months to take one other crack on the Basic, and since his final journey to the U.S., he’s received a Grade 1 and completed second in two others.

No. 1 Endlessly Younger (6-1) was third on this 12 months’s Kentucky Derby, crushed by lower than a size by the 2 horses that completed in entrance of him. He went again to Japan after the Derby and received the Japan Filth Basic in October. Earlier this 12 months, he’d received 5 straight: three in Japan, one in Saudi Arabia and one in Dubai. He’s acquired two wins and a 3rd on the distance, and he looms massive right here.

No. 3 Metropolis of Troy (5-2) was bred in Kentucky and sired by Justify, however he’s spent his complete profession in Europe, working in Britain and Eire, the place he’s received six of seven races, together with at route distances. What he’s by no means carried out is run on dust, they usually say that you just by no means guess a horse that’s favored doing one thing that he’s by no means carried out earlier than. That works for me right here, and whereas I’m undecided he’ll be favored come publish time, I’m blissful to let him beat me.

Second favourite at 3-1, No. 9 Fierceness has been inconsistent all through his profession, by no means placing collectively two wins in a row till this summer season, when he received the Jim Dandy and the Travers Stakes at Saratoga. He’s super-talented, however I’m undecided that I belief him.

The story of the race might be No. 14 Subsequent (8-1), who’s made his profession working marathons, entailing distances of a mile and 1 / 4 and longer. He’s received seven in a row and 13 of 23 lifetime, typically by 10 lengths or extra, and there’s little doubt that he’s a supremely gifted horse. The factor is that races of that distance aren’t usually of Grade 1 caliber, and neither are the horses that run in them. Kudos to his connections for taking a shot right here.

Filly and Mare Turf

Publish time: 6:25 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million purse
Distance: 1 3/8 miles

That is one other race that’s been the province of worldwide runners; it’s been almost a decade since a horse bred in america has received it.

That mentioned, there are some home runners right here that catch my eye, and I’ll be upfront about saying that within the case of one among them, it’s as a result of I actually need to see her win.

That’s No. 4 Warfare Like Goddess (5-2). She will not be purely a sentimental decide, as she’s the morning line favourite, and her report holds up towards just about everybody else right here. That is the fourth Breeders’ Cup for the 7-year-old, which is spectacular in and of itself. However she’s but to make it to the winner’s circle, although she completed third in 2021 and 2022. She’s by no means been worse than third on the distance and has 4 wins in seven begins at 1 ⅜, however she’s acquired just one win this 12 months and faces formidable competitors.

No. 10 Moira (8-1) is one other sentimental favourite; that is her third try at this race, and she or he completed third in it final 12 months. Distance will not be a fear for her, and although she’s flippantly raced this 12 months, she’s been aggressive in all three begins, together with a win within the Grade 2 Beverly D. in August.

Coach Graham Movement brings one other long-shot menace right here in No. 11 Seashore Bomb (20-1), who started racing within the U.S. this summer season after starting her profession in South Africa, the place she was bred. Of the Euros, I’m inclined in direction of No. 3 Cinderella’s Dream (4-1), who was based mostly within the U.S. this summer season and turned in two spectacular Grade 1 wins in New York.

Dash

Publish time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million
Distance: 6 furlongs

No. 10 Mullikin (7-2) turned in a powerful efficiency on this summer season’s Grade 1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga, profitable by 5 3/4 lengths because the odds-on favourite. It was his first Grade 1 win, along with his first graded stakes win coming in July in a Grade 2. Earlier than these two races, the corporate that he’d been retaining was fairly far under what he’ll face right here, so this needs to be the most important check of this 4-year-old’s profession.

One in all two Japanese runners right here, No. 5 Don Frankie (15-1), thrives at this distance and owns a Group 1 win in Japan. It is a huge ask, however I’m intrigued at that value.

Not rather a lot within the report of No. 11 Skelly (8-1) means that he can run with these, however he’s a dash specialist from the barn of a coach who skilled a number of the greatest sprinters of the previous few years.

Mile

Publish time: 7:45 p.m. ET
Purse: $2 million purse
Distance: 1 mile

European horses specialize on this floor at this distance, so let’s begin there. No. 7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) has received her final three races, two of them Grade 1, and she or he was a slim runner-up in final 12 months’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s taking up elders right here and working towards males, however she’s sport and loves the gap.

No. 12 Carl Spackler (6-1) is likely one of the extra dominant U.S. runners right here, with a handful of graded stakes wins on his resume, and he involves the race off two straight Grade 1 wins. He’s acquired Irish turf blood on his sire aspect and stamina on his dam aspect; nothing to not like.

Lengthy-shot No. 8 Extra Than Appears to be like (20-1) intrigues me, given his affinity for the gap, although he’s winless at this degree and was crushed in his final two races by Carl Spackler.

Filth Mile

Publish time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 1 mile

No. 8 Publish Time (12-1) has had a heck of a 12 months, by no means ending worse than third. His greatest efficiency got here within the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga, a third-place end at odds of 25-1 that confirmed that he belongs in elite firm. He loves the gap and has guts.

Just one winner of a Triple Crown race made it to the Breeders’ Cup, and that’s No. 6 Seize the Grey (10-1). He’s carried out his greatest working racing longer however does have a win on the distance.

An import from Argentina, No. 3 Full Serrano (15-1) has run twice at Del Mar, incomes a simple win and an in depth second, and he demonstrated in his South American races his appreciation of the mile. The expertise is there, although he’s taking a giant step up in competitors.

At a shorter value, don’t ignore No. 9 Home Product (7-2) who’s stretching out from seven furlongs to a mile after working at longer distances earlier this 12 months. He received by 7 1/2 lengths in his solely try at this distance.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson, The Athletic; Photos by: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Photos)