Watch the UK election like a pro – POLITICO

If Labour wins, Keir Starmer would then be pushed to Buckingham Palace, the place the king would invite him to type a authorities in a one-to-one assembly. The interval between prime ministers often lasts as much as an hour.

Within the afternoon, the brand new PM is welcomed to 10 Downing Road by Cupboard Secretary Simon Case and can spend many of the day appointing his Cupboard, a public spectacle with ministers strolling alongside Downing Road to be taught their destiny. Most — however not all — may have shadowed the temporary in opposition.

There are additionally often cellphone calls with the primary ministers of the devolved nations, together with some world leaders providing congratulations.

Within the following days, the brand new PM will appoint junior ministers, conduct extra cellphone calls, and, a considerably chilling process, write “letters of final resort” to Britain’s 4 nuclear submarine commanders, telling them easy methods to reply if there may be an all-out assault that renders him incapable of giving command.

If Sunak loses, elimination vans may begin arriving over the weekend for his departure from the flat in Downing Road the place he at present lives together with his spouse and daughters, prepared for the Starmers to maneuver in. The Labour chief has a spouse, Victoria, and a teenage son and daughter.

Media information

BBC protection can be fronted by Laura Kuenssberg and Clive Myrie with pollster John Curtice, Jeremy Vine’s “Swingometer,” denoting the standing of the events within the Home of Commons, and political friends.

Sky Information is led by Kay Burley and Sophy Ridge with politicians Andy Burnham and Ruth Davidson and election analyst Michael Thrasher.

ITV is dropped at us by Tom Bradby with politicians Nicola Sturgeon, George Osborne and Ed Balls, and analyst Colin Rallings.

Channel 4 is fronted by Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Emily Maitlis, with politicians Harriet Harman, Kwasi Kwarteng, and centrist dad podcasters Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart.

LBC is led by Andrew Marr and Shelagh Fogarty, with evaluation from former Countdown presenter Carol Vorderman and broadcaster Rachel Johnson amongst others.

GB Information has Camilla Tominey and Stephen Dixon, with politician panelists together with Kwarteng, Brandon Lewis, Margaret Hodge and Graham Brady, and a watch social gathering at an Essex membership.

And, in fact, POLITICO can be following all of it on our stay weblog.

Outcomes hour by hour

10 p.m.: Polls shut and the exit ballot is revealed. This can be a second in historical past whichever approach it goes.

11 p.m.: Two protected Labour seats within the North East duke it out to be first to declare: Blyth and Ashington and Houghton and Sunderland South. The Reform UK vote share within the latter, the place Farage held an enormous rally, will point out how frightened or in any other case Tories must be.

12 a.m.: Polls tip ex-Cupboard minister Robert Buckland to lose Swindon South to Labour retread Heidi Alexander after 14 years. But it surely’s Dwelling Counties Broxbourne and Basildon and Billericay that will sound doom alarms in CCHQ in the event that they went purple, and never simply because Tory chairman Richard Holden parachuted into the latter. The Conservatives big majorities and Labour is focusing on neither, however Reform is predicted to do nicely.

1 a.m.: Labour’s first two Scottish goal seats declare together with Hamilton and Clyde Valley. Swindon North may go purple for the primary time since New Labour. The Lib Dems may get their first achieve off the Tories in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

2 a.m. — The flood begins

NARRATIVE SETS: Dwelling of the military, Aldershot could possibly be the primary correct upset of the night time if it leaves Tory fingers for the primary time in a century. Polls are additionally tipping the quaint northern market city of Hexham to go purple for the primary time … together with Colchester in Essex for the primary time since 1950 (albeit with many boundary modifications since) … and for Labour to regain two West Midlands seats not held since David Cameron’s day — Cannock Chase and North Warwickshire and Bedworth.

Mortar units: Labour hopes to start out rebuilding its purple wall in seats within the Midlands and north of England that it misplaced in 2017 and 2019, together with Bolsover, Darlington, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland and Redcar … and will push additional in southern seats together with Peterborough and (at a stretch) Folkestone and Hythe.

Badenoch already? The Tories ought to maintain management hopeful Kemi Badenoch’s North West Essex until it’s shaping as much as be really a horrible night time. Equally, the social gathering wants to carry Fort Level … Rayleigh and Wickford … Sussex Weald … Stratford-on-Avon the place Lib Dems made progress … and Hertsmere, the place a star of actuality TV present “Gogglebox” is standing for Labour in opposition to Deputy PM Oliver Dowden.

Over the borders: Labour is projected to realize its first Tory seats of the night time in Wales together with Vale of Glamorgan, which each leaders visited … and is aiming for SNP-held seats in Scotland’s central belt together with Paisley and Renfrewshire North and South … West Dunbartonshire … Glenrothes and Mid Fife … and Dundee Central on an excellent night time.

In Lib Dem land: The social gathering moved sources to stretch goal Torbay weeks earlier than polling day. The largest upset of all can be North East Hampshire, an extended shot that was not so way back the most secure Tory seat within the nation.

And on Planet George: Gaza-campaigning maverick MP George Galloway will attempt to hold on to his current by-election win in Rochdale.

3 a.m. — Zero hour for the Cupboard

CONSEQUENCES: This hour shapes the way forward for the Conservative Get together, as ministers and management hopefuls discover out in the event that they’ve held on to their seats. They embrace Lib Dem targets Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt), Cheltenham (Alex Chalk) and Chichester (Gillian Keegan) … and Labour targets Portsmouth North (Penny Mordaunt), Welwyn Hatfield (Grant Shapps), Newark (Robert Jenrick) and Forest of Dean (Mark Harper).Different seats ought to keep blue wanting a complete Tory wipeout, comparable to Fareham and Waterlooville (Suella Braverman,) East Surrey (Claire Coutinho,) and Louth and Horncastle (Victoria Atkins.)

Zero hour for them too: Labour frontbencher Thangam Debbonaire dangers being unseated by the Greens in Bristol Central … whereas impartial Jeremy Corbyn, the previous Labour chief, is attempting to maintain Islington North.

Construct the wall: Extra of Boris Johnson’s purple wall positive factors are tipped to return to Labour together with Bolton North East (the place the outgoing Tory MP endorsed Starmer) … Gedling … Nice Grimsby and Cleethorpes …  Hyndburn … Mansfield … Rother Valley … Scunthorpe … Stockton West … and Hartlepool, the place a Labour by-election loss in 2021 practically made Starmer resign. Labour may choose up true-blue Rushcliffe, and Scarborough and Whitby in North Yorkshire, which now has a Labour mayor.

Within the Midlands: Labour is gunning for seats it hasn’t held since Blair and Brown together with Staffordshire Moorlands … Erewash … Burton and Uttoxeter … Stourbridge … and Redditch, the place Labour swept to regulate of the council in Might.

And within the south: Labour needs to push additional into southern Tory territory by profitable bellwether Harlow … Southend East and Rochford which stayed blue by means of New Labour … Chelsea and Fulham … Cities of London and Westminster … Harrow East … Crawley … Dover and Deal … East Thanet … Lowestoft … each Isle of Wight seats … Gloucester … and Chingford and Woodford Inexperienced, the place ex-Tory Chief Iain Duncan Smith could possibly be ousted regardless of a row over excluded Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen.

Turning the air blue: Lib Dem Chief Ed Davey is because of converse at his personal rely, after a rush of Lib Dem goal seats within the Tory blue wall, together with Carshalton and Wallington … Eastleigh … Esher and Walton … Sutton and Cheam … and in the event that they’re having a extremely good night time, Frome and East Somerset, South Devon or Witney.

Seeing purple: Two-fifths of Scotland’s seats are declared, together with SNP-held Labour targets within the central belt comparable to Midlothian, Airdrie and Shotts and all six Glasgow seats. Labour former foyer journalist Torcuil Crichton may win Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles), whereas stretch wins in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock or North Ayrshire and Arran would present Labour was having a really good night time. SNP Westminster Chief Stephen Flynn ought to maintain Aberdeen South — however test the vote share.

Final Kings of Scotland: Scottish Tories could have the perfect probability of holding off a weakened SNP in three turgidly-named Borders seats — Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk … Dumfries and Galloway … and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.

(And of Wales): Tory Chief Whip Simon Hart faces a Plaid Cymru menace in Caerfyrddin, whereas blue Ynys Mon is a three-way battle with Plaid and Labour.

(And of Northern Eire): Belfast East is tight between the Alliance and Gavin Robinson, who’ll most likely be ousted as DUP chief if he loses.

4 a.m. — The leaders converse

BIG GUNS: Sunak and Starmer break cowl at native counts in Richmond and Northallerton (assuming the PM wins)and Holborn and St Pancras — simply as all 4 of Reform UK’s largest goal seats declare. These are Clacton (Nigel Farage), Ashfield (Lee Anderson), Boston and Skegness and Wellingborough and Rushden.

Large weapons fired? Welsh Secretary David TC Davies (Monmouthshire) and right-wing Tories Miriam Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge) and probably Jacob Rees Mogg (North East Somerset and Hanham) may all lose to Labour. Braintree (James Cleverly), West Suffolk (Nick Timothy), Witham (Priti Patel) and Central Devon (Mel Stride) ought to keep blue until we’re within the wipeout zone.

Crimson wave: Labour needs to reclaim purple wall North East Derbyshire, Bishop Auckland, Bassetlaw and Barrow and Furness … and is focusing on a string of south coast Tory heartlands together with Bournemouth East, Bournemouth West, East Worthing and Shoreham and Worthing West, house of Father of the Home Peter Bottomley. There’s additionally Thurrock and Gravesham on the Thames Estuary … Milton Keynes Central and North … and Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, after ULEZ scuppered Labour’s hope to take it in a by-election final summer time.

Crimson tsunami? On a very good night time Labour may additionally choose up seats it final held beneath Blair comparable to Sherwood Forest, Rossendale and Darwen and Norwich North … Tory strongholds for many years within the north together with Macclesfield, and Altrincham and Sale West … likewise Derbyshire Dales, Rugby and Kettering within the Midlands … and yellow-blue Southport for the primary time. On a really spectacular night time, Aylesbury and Playbook’s hometown of Ashford could possibly be in play.

Shoots: The Greens are defending Brighton Pavilion and wish progress in Waveney Valley.

Wheeee: The Lib Dems need Tory-held Surrey Heath, Dorking and Horley, Guildford, South Cambridgeshire, Yeovil, Woking and Eastbourne, the place candidate Josh Babarinde is tipped as a future chief. They are going to be doing even higher in the event that they win Chippenham or North Norfolk.

Scotched: Labour needs a string of SNP-held goal seats within the central belt, together with three in Edinburgh … Livingston … Dunfermline and Greenback … and Lothian East the place ex-Gordon Brown minister Douglas Alexander is eyeing a comeback. Scottish Tory Chief Douglas Ross has been battling exhausting to carry Aberdeenshire North and Moray East after Labour suspended its candidate.

Caked: The Tories are tipped to lose most Welsh seats, however three-way Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe and Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr (house to Gamblegate scandal Tory candidate Craig Williams) will resolve if it’s a one hundred pc wipeout.

And in Northern Eire: Ex-DUP Chief Jeffrey Donaldson’s arrest has turned protected Lagan Valley right into a battle with Alliance.

5 a.m. — Lib Dem time to shine

MELLOW YELLOW: One other 100 declarations this hour may see a sweep of Lib Dem positive factors, together with blue wall Lewes, West Dorset, Didcot and Wantage and Winchester … the West Nation’s St Ives, North Cornwall and Honiton and Sidmouth … and Hazel Grove and Cheadle within the North. In the event that they get Theresa Might’s outdated seat Maidenhead it’ll be a yellow letter day.

Tizz with Liz: Ex-PMLiz Truss will lose South West Norfolk provided that probably the most apocalyptic polls are proper.

Little thrill with Phil: You’d get lengthy odds for saying Philip Davies will cease Labour taking his Shipley seat, blue since 2005.

Southern consolation: Labour is focusing on one other slew of southern English seats, comparable to Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer’s Plymouth Moor View … Truro and Falmouth … Camborne and Redruth … Hastings and Rye … Hemel Hempstead … Hendon … New Labour stomping grounds Rochester and Strood and Gillingham and Rainham … and Hitchin, the place boundary modifications imply incumbent MPs Bim Afolami (C) and Alistair Strathern (L) are duking it out.

All going south: Starmer additionally needs city flight to assist him make historical past in true-blue areas close to London together with Buckingham and Bletchley, Banbury (house to Legal professional Normal Victoria Prentis)and Chipping Barnet … whereas Labour can be in supermajority territory if it wins St Austell and Newquay, Mid Derbyshire, Weston-super-Mare and North East Hertfordshire, all with four-figure Tory majorities.

And in purple wall information:Labour needs to reclaim all three Stoke-on-Trent seats, together with Tory Deputy Chairman Jonathan Gullis’.

6 a.m. — The morning after

THEY THINK IT’S ALL OVER: There’s now a trickle of ultimate declarations, principally in southern England, together with Lib Dem goal Wokingham and a few Labour targets — Chatham and Aylesford (look ahead to the Reform vote share), and Policing Minister Chris Philp’s Croydon South. Former Labour MP Emma Reynolds is tipped to make a comeback in Wycombe, unseating Brexiteer Steve Baker.

The final huge shock … would come if the Lib Dems handle to grab Henley and Thame after 114 blue years, or Tory Geoffrey Cox’s Torridge and Tavistock. Sunak raised eyebrows by visiting each mega-safe seats on the marketing campaign path.

Additional sources

Many information factors went into this information, nevertheless it’s value pointing readers to LabourList’s Daniel Inexperienced for cracking work figuring out social gathering battlegrounds … and PA’s estimated declaration occasions. There must also be the same old caveats that MRP polls and timings may grow to be very fallacious, and that our timings are sorted into one-hour blocks reasonably than precise occasions.

Shawn Pogatchnik contributed reporting on Northern Eire’s seats.