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Where OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands in midseason NBA MVP race

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5 hours ago

January 23, 2025

Where OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stands in midseason NBA MVP race

We’re midway dwelling within the NBA season, and just like the Thunder atop the Western Convention, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is opening up fairly the lead within the MVP race.

In mid-December, Denver’s Nikola Jokic had a wholesome lead on Gilgeous-Alexander in ESPN’s MVP straw ballot, carried out a number of instances over the course of every season by Tim Bontemps.

In that ballot, Jokic obtained 57 first-place votes. SGA was second with 24 first-place votes. Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo was the one different participant to obtain first-place votes (19).

That ballot was printed shortly after Giannis and the Bucks beat SGA and the Thunder within the NBA Cup ultimate.

The second version of Bontemps’ MVP straw ballot usually comes out in mid-February across the All-Star break. Bontemps makes use of the identical methodology because the NBA. He reaches out to 100 probably voters — completely different reporters and broadcasters across the nation, and even some worldwide reporters.

I don’t have a vote this yr, however Bontemps requested me to vote in his ballot. Right here was the poll I submitted on Dec. 16.

1. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
4. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
5. Luka Doncic, Mavericks

Spoiler alert: Gilgeous-Alexander has since leaped Jokic for the highest spot.

SGA can also be the overwhelming favourite within the betting market. He’s -330 to win the MVP, in line with FanDuel. Jokic is +260. Antetokounmpo is a distant third at +4000. A $10 wager on SGA would web you a profitable of $3.03. The identical wager on Jokic would win $26. Throw $10 on Antetokounmpo and also you’re a cool $400 … I’m not a gambler however these are fairly juicy odds for Giannis.

On the midway level of the season, right here’s my means-nothing-so-don’t-yell-at-me MVP poll:

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40 video games, 34.9 minutes, 25.1 factors, 13.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 steals/blocks, 55% FG, 43% 3FG, 84% FT

I used to be between Cities and Victor Wembanyama for my fifth spot. Virtually the entire superior stats favor Wembanyama, who already is the very best defensive participant within the NBA.

However I went with Cities for an arbitrary purpose. He’s been the very best participant — sure, higher than Jalen Brunson — on a Knicks crew that’s 13 video games above .500. The Spurs, in the meantime, are three video games beneath .500 and are amid a slide.

Wembanyama has the Spurs in play-in competition, which is outstanding, however I’m not placing a participant on a sub-.500 crew on my MVP poll. Arbitrary, I do know.

Again to Cities. I didn’t love the commerce for New York or Minnesota, however what a boon it’s been for the Knickerbockers. Cities, in 12 months 10, is having the very best offensive season of his profession. And that’s saying one thing for the self-professed “best massive man shooter of all time.”

Cities is taking pictures 43.3% from 3-point vary, good for ninth within the league. He leads the NBA in whole rebounds and ranks eighth in whole factors.

He ranks fifth in NBA.com’s participant affect estimate, fifth in Basketball Reference’s participant effectivity ranking and third in win shares behind solely Jokic and SGA.

Cities has additionally performed 200 extra minutes than Wembanyama has, which isn’t nothing.

40 video games, 36.3 minutes, 27.5 factors, 9.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals/blocks, 46% FG, 36% 3FG, 80% FT

Listed here are Tatum’s MVP finishes within the final three seasons: sixth, fourth, sixth. And right here I’ve him in that vary once more.

It’s nearly boring how bankable his manufacturing has change into.

Tatum’s taking pictures splits are down throughout the board, however then again he’s averaging a profession excessive in rebounds and assists. He ranks sixth in factors per recreation, nineteenth in rebounds and thirty first in assists. He ranks top-10 in nearly each superior metric.

The Celtics are sleepwalking their approach by way of the common season and nonetheless they’ve the third-best file within the NBA.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks

35 video games, 34.9 minutes, 31.5 factors, 12.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 2.2 steals/blocks, 61% FG, 15% 3FG, 59% FT

The 2-time MVP is averaging a career-high in factors, the third-most rebounds and second-most assists of his profession. And but he’s a distant third on this race.

That is now back-to-back seasons during which Giannis is taking pictures north of 60% from the sector. He’s making an attempt lower than one 3-pointer per recreation (thank goodness) for the primary time in 10 years. He will get to the free-throw line greater than anyone within the league — 45 extra makes an attempt than even SGA — however he’s a horrible foul shooter. Consider all of the factors he’s leaving on the line.

At his finest, Antetokounmpo is the very best defensive participant on this listing.

In estimated plus/minus, Antetokounmpo ranks sixth within the NBA. He’s third in participant effectivity ranking and third in worth over alternative participant — and third on this MVP race — behind Jokic and SGA.

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2. Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

37 video games, 36.4 minutes, 30.1 factors, 13.2 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 2.5 steals/blocks, 56% FG, 48% FG, 81% FT

The case for Jokic: He’s the one participant who ranks top-five in factors, rebounds and assists. He’s averaging profession highs in factors, assists and steals per recreation. He’s taking pictures a career-best 47.5% from 3-point vary, which ranks second within the NBA. He has 19 triple-doubles. Nobody else is in double-digits. He’s No. 1 in participant effectivity ranking, No. 1 in worth over alternative participant and No. 1 in field plus/minus.

The Nuggets are fourth within the West. They wouldn’t be a playoff crew with out Jokic. Denver has outscored opponents by 13 factors per 100 possessions with Jokic on the court docket. Denver has been outscored by 9.9 factors with Jokic off the court docket. Which means the Nuggets are 22.9 factors per 100 possessions higher with Jokic than they’re with out him.

Jokic’s conventional counting stats (factors, rebounds, assists) add as much as 53.2. SGA, by comparability, is at 42.9.

The MVP is a regular-season award, however simply pointing this out: Jokic is universally considered the very best participant on the planet. He’s making an attempt to win his fourth MVP award within the final 5 seasons.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

41 video games, 34.1 minutes, 31.5 factors, 5.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 3.2 steals/blocks, 53% FG, 35% 3FG, 90% FT

The case for Gilgeous-Alexander over Jokic: He’s the very best participant on the very best crew within the West. The Thunder have an 8.5-game lead on the Nuggets. OKC has outscored opponents by 18.9 factors per 100 possessions with SGA on the court docket. OKC has been outscored by 0.6 factors with SGA off the court docket — a distinction of 19.5 factors.

SGA has scored 1,291 factors, 149 greater than any participant within the league. He leads the league in made free throws and ranks ninth in free-throw proportion. He ranks second in steals and has the second-most blocks of any guard.