Commanders vs. Lions bold prediction: David Montgomery dominates

It’s playoff time, and which means the Lions are getting extra reinforcements. After seeing an enormous defensive surge from Alex Anzalone’s return in Week 18, the Lions are set to return David Montgomery to the lineup for his or her Divisional Spherical matchup towards the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have one of many league’s most potent offenses. Nevertheless, their weak spot lies proper the place the Lions prefer it: in run protection.

Daring prediction of the week: David Montgomery averages 5.0+ yards per carry in his return from harm

David Montgomery doesn’t all the time have the identical flashy stats as Jahmyr Gibbs does, and it has so much to do with utilization. Montgomery is the default for short-yardage and purpose line conditions, and his runs are often extra between the tackles in comparison with Gibbs, who will get extra alternatives to make use of his velocity to get to the sting. That often means Montgomery doesn’t accrue the identical yardage as Gibbs.

Consequently, Montgomery has solely crossed the 5.0 yards per carry threshold thrice in his 14 video games this season. Notably, two of these got here in absolute beatdowns towards the Dallas Cowboys and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The third was the season opener, so it’s been some time since we noticed Montgomery achieve this towards a worthy opponent.

Nevertheless, the Commanders might have simply the appropriate recipe for Montgomery to cross that threshold once more. The Commanders have been one of many worst run defenses within the league this 12 months. They’d a sizzling stretch from late November into December the place they held three (mediocre) groups every to <100 speeding yards, however have since fallen out of shape once more. Of their final 4 video games, the Commanders protection is permitting a mean of 147 speeding yards per sport. That’s not nice.

The Commanders additionally current a uniquely good match for the Lions offense. Solely two groups in NFL historical past have had three video games in a season with zero turnovers and 0 punts: this 12 months’s Commanders, and this 12 months’s Lions. Meaning you’ll be able to anticipate a shootout, regardless of how good of a recipe Aaron Glenn can prepare dinner up for this Lions protection. If the Commanders offense stays within the sport, then the Lions received’t essentially be in apparent chew clock operating conditions. That ought to imply David Montgomery will get extra trustworthy seems from the Commanders entrance seven, resulting in extra yards on the bottom.

Clearly, nothing is a assure given Montgomery’s harm. He’s getting back from a torn MCL that was initially purported to take him out for the remainder of the 12 months. There’s no telling how near 100% he’ll be, or if he’ll have to knock off some rust to start out. The Lions are additionally anticipating a change to the offensive line. Kevin Zeitler has been dominated out for Saturday’s sport, with Christian Mahogany set to switch him at proper guard. That leaves a little bit of a query mark so far as whether or not the run sport will likely be as constant as traditional.

In the end, the Commanders current what is probably going the weakest run protection the Lions have seen in two months. That’s a fantastic alternative to capitalize, however there’s no telling how prepared Montgomery will likely be to take action. If he can hit the bottom operating, and all goes properly with Mahogany filling in, then anticipate him to cross the 5.0 YPC threshold en path to a playoff victory over Washington.